Dorab Mistry 综合分析9月10号

DJ CPO Futures May Find Support At MYR2,200/Ton -Analyst Mistry

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Crude palm oil futures may find support at MYR2,200 a
metric ton on strong demand if crude petroleum prices stabilize around $100 a
barrel - plus or minus $10, London-based vegetable oil analyst Dorab Mistry
said Wednesday.

  "Palm oil prices have to reach that magical market-clearing level where
additional demand kicks in," Mistry told a conference here on vegetable oils.

  Such a market-clearing level, where excess stocks of CPO are cleared without
difficulty, exists at $600-$650 a ton, free-on-board. He said at these levels
CPO costs around $100/ton less than crude petroleum oil, he said.

  If crude oil prices fall further, to around $80 a barrel, CPO futures may
have to follow suit.

  After briefly reaching an all-time high of MYR4,486/ton March 4, CPO futures
prices have fallen by nearly half. Tuesday, the benchmark November contract on
BMD hit a fresh one-year low of MYR2,346.

  Mistry, whose forecasts on vegetable oils are followed worldwide, said even
at MYR2,200/ton, the palm oil industry is in a very healthy state.

  There is a vast market for burning palm oil as fuel in boilers, furnaces and
for electricity generation which can become accessible if CPO prices are at a
significant discount to fossil fuels.

  "This possibility is not unrealistic and may be the quick fix that the palm
oil market is crying out for," Mistry said.


  Record High Output, Inventory


  The ongoing high production cycle of palm oil may continue in east Malaysia
until the first half of November and in parts of Indonesia until December, he
said.

  This may push Malaysia's palm oil output to a record 18 million tons this
year, from 15.8 million tons in 2007.

  Indonesia's CPO output may reach a record 20 million tons this year, Mistry
said. According to industry estimates, the country produced 16.7 million tons
of CPO in 2007.

  Meanwhile, Malaysia's palm oil stocks are hovering at record levels of around
2 million tons.

  Mistry said Indonesia's palm oil stocks may have exceeded those of Malaysia
in end-August.

  He said by the first half of November, the combined palm oil inventories of
Malaysia and Indonesia may exceed 5.0 million tons.

  Indonesia's export taxes on palm oil acted as a disincentive to shipping out
cargoes, and led to the largest-ever build-up in inventories, he said.

  Furthermore, China is likely to harvest around 18 million tons soybeans this
year, sharply higher than 2007, which may bring down the country's imports, he
said.

  As global vegetable oil supplies rose, demand was hit due to high prices in
the first half of 2008.

  Global demand for vegetable oils in the current oil year is estimated to have
increased by 4 million tons, including 3 million tons for food consumption,
while supply rose by around 5.45 million tons. The nearly 1.5 million tons of
excess supply mostly came in the second half of the year, he said.

  There are preliminary indications the global demand for vegetable oils for
food consumption may rise by 4.0 million tons in 2008-09, while the demand to
make biodiesel may rise by 2.5 million tons, he said. Meanwhile, the global
vegetable oil supply may rise by 6.8 million tons compared with a total
incremental demand of 6.5 million tons in 2008-09.


  Favorable Weather


  Mistry said all major agricultural growing regions besides Argentina are
experiencing nearly ideal weather. "Hurricane Gustav brought much-needed
moisture to parts of the U.S. midwest and the monsoon gave some relief to parts
of the Indian oilseeds belt."

  He said wheat and canola growing regions in Australia have also received
much-needed rainfall recently.

  Even the drought in Argentina may lead to a shift in acreage towards soybeans
from wheat, he noted.


  -By Prasenjit Bhattacharya and Sameer Mohindru, Dow Jones Newswires; +(6012)
212-6585; [email]sameer.mohindru@dowjones.com[/email]


  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

注意这一句

：DJ MARKET TALK: BMD CPO Futures Near ''Market-Clearing'' Level -Analyst

BMD CPO futures prices could be zeroing in on level that will
ensure demand rises for both food and fuel use, says London-based analyst Dorab
Mistry. "Palm oil prices have to reach that magical market-clearing level where
additional demand kicks in," Mistry told conference on vegetable oils in
Singapore; adds such level exists around MYR2,200/ton if crude hovers around
$100/barrel. Benchmark BMD November CPO futures ended MYR115 lower yesterday,
at MYR2,354/ton - a one-year low. Keyword search ANALYST MISTRY or, in some
systems, follow the link to read more.  (SAM)

那位志愿者把上面哩翻译一下嘛:hug:

看不懂，文化太低了:$ :$ :$ :$

雅虎翻译工具翻译结果

DJ CPO未来也许发现支持在MYR2,200/Ton -分析员Mistry

SINGAPORE (道琼)--粗暴棕榈油未来也许发现支持在MYR2,200 在强烈的需求的公吨，如果原油价格稳定大约$100
barrel -大约$10，基于伦敦的菜油分析员Dorab Mistry
said星期三。

“棕榈油价格必须到达的那个不可思议的市场清洁水平additional需求起动， “Mistry告诉一个会议这里关于菜油。

这样市场清洁水平， CPO余料被清除，不用
difficulty，存在$600-$650每吨，离岸点。 他说在这些水平
CPO在$100/ton附近花费较少比原油油，他说。

，如果原油进一步价格下降，对大约$80每桶， CPO未来可以
必须仿效别人。
在简要到达最高纪录以后的 MYR4,486/ton 3月4日， CPO未来prices由几乎半下落了。 星期二，在的基准11月合同BMD击中了新一年的低落MYR2,346。

Mistry，在菜油的展望被跟随全世界，说甚而
at MYR2,200/ton，棕榈油产业在一个非常健康状态。
那里是灼烧的棕榈油的一个浩大的市场作为在锅炉、熔炉和的燃料for能变得容易接近的电力生产，如果CPO价格在对矿物燃料的significant折扣。

“这种可能性不是不切实际的，并且也许是那的快速修复棕榈
oil市场大声呼喊为， “Mistry说。


记录高产，存货

棕榈油的持续的高生产周期在东马来西亚也许继续的until前半11月和在印度尼西亚的部分直到12月的，他
said.

这也许推挤马来西亚的棕榈油产品到纪录18百万吨这
year，在2007年从15.8百万吨。

印度尼西亚的CPO产品也许今年到达纪录20百万吨， Mistry
said. 根据产业估计，国家导致了16.7百万吨在2007年of CPO。
同时，马来西亚的棕榈油股票在上空盘旋在的记录层2百万吨。

Mistry说印度尼西亚的棕榈油股票也许超出了那些马来西亚
in 8月底。
他由前半11月说的， 联合的棕榈油存货 Malaysia和印度尼西亚也许超出5.0百万吨。

印度尼西亚的在棕榈油的出口税作为障碍因素对运输
cargoes和导致在存货的最大的积累，他说。
此外，中国可能收获大约18百万吨大豆这
year，尖锐高于2007年，也许减少国家的进口，他
said.
作为全球性菜油供应玫瑰，需求的被击中的归结于在的高价the前半2008年。
对菜油的全球性需求在本油该年估计有由4百万吨的increased，包括3粮食消耗的百万吨，
while供应上升了大约5.45百万吨。 几乎1.5百万吨
excess供应主要进来下半年，他说。
那里是初步征兆对菜油的全球性需求的在2008-09 food消耗量也许由4.0百万吨上升，而需求到
make生物柴油也许由2.5百万吨上升，他说。 同时，全球性
vegetable石油供应也许由6.8百万吨上升比较一总在2008-09 6.5百万吨incremental需求。


有利天气


Mistry说除阿根廷以外的所有主要农业生长地区是
experiencing几乎理想的天气。 “飓风Gustav带来了大量需求的对美国中西部和季风的部分的moisture给了一些安心零件印第安油籽种子围绕的of。“
他说的麦子和canola生长地区在澳洲也接受了最近much-needed降雨量。

天旱在阿根廷也许导致转移在往大豆的英亩中from麦子，他注意了。


- Prasenjit Bhattacharya和Sameer Mohindru，道琼Newswires; + (6012)
212-6585; [email]sameer.mohindru@dowjones.com[/email]


(末端)道琼Newswires

#2的中文意思

：DJ市场谈话： BMD近CPO未来"级的市场清洁" -分析员

BMD CPO未来价格可能调零在将的水平上
ensure需求为食物上升，并且燃料消费，说基于伦敦的分析员Dorab
Mistry. “棕榈油价格必须到达的那个不可思议的市场清洁水平additional需求起动， “Mistry告诉关于菜油的会议在
Singapore; 如果原油在上空盘旋，增加这样水平在MYR2,200/ton附近存在$100/barrel. 昨天基准点BMD 11月CPO未来结束的MYR115更低，
at MYR2,354/ton -一年的低落。 一些的键盘检索分析员MISTRY或，systems，跟随链接读更多。 (SAM)